MIAC Men's Soccer

Playoff Scenarios

Standings through the games of Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026. Five conference games remain, Oct. 30 to Oct. 31. The top six of 11 teams qualify for the playoffs, which start Nov. 3.

Clinched

Still alive

Eliminated

The No. 1 seed

St. Olaf (25 points) and Gustavus (23) have first-round byes locked up. St. Olaf is the No. 1 seed unless Gustavus wins at Carleton and St. Olaf does not win at Hamline.

If Gustavus wins and St. Olaf loses, Gustavus is No. 1. If Gustavus wins and St. Olaf ties, both finish on 26 points and the tie goes to the later tiebreakers: their only meeting ended 1-1 on Tuesday, so head-to-head is level, and the call then moves to the later tiebreakers (results against other playoff teams, then goal differential). In every other outcome St. Olaf is No. 1. Carleton and Saint John's are locked into the 3 and 4 seeds.

The last two spots

Exactly one of Augsburg, St. Scholastica and Macalester misses the playoffs. The one with the fewest final conference points is out, and St. Scholastica loses any tie.

Augsburg and Macalester each beat St. Scholastica in head-to-head play this season. Two games decide it: Macalester at Augsburg (Fri., Oct. 30) and Saint John's at St. Scholastica (Sat., Oct. 31).

Final points. Augsburg: 15 with a loss, 16 with a tie, 18 with a win. Macalester: 13, 14 or 16. St. Scholastica: 13, 14 or 16.

Who misses the playoffs, by result of each game.

Macalester at Augsburg	St. Scholastica loses	St. Scholastica ties	St. Scholastica wins
Augsburg wins	St. Scholastica	Macalester	Macalester
Tie	St. Scholastica	St. Scholastica	Macalester
Macalester wins	St. Scholastica	St. Scholastica	Augsburg

Counting each combination equally, Augsburg makes it in 8 of 9, Macalester in 6 of 9 and St. Scholastica in 4 of 9.

Scenario builder

Quarterfinals and bracket

Seeds 1 and 2 host the semifinals. The final is hosted by the higher seed. Game times are tentative.

Tiebreakers, in order

Head-to-head record among all tied teamsOnly the games the tied teams played against each other count. Points in those games (3 per win, 1 per tie) decide it.
Most wins in conference playMore wins beats more ties. A team with more conference wins ranks ahead even if it has fewer total points.
Results against other teams in the playoffsPoints earned against playoff teams that are not part of the tie.
Goal differential, capped at three goals per gameConference goals scored minus goals allowed, counting a margin of no more than three in any one game, so a blowout helps only so much.
Lowest goals against in conference playFewest goals allowed in all conference games.
Points system: add the position numbers of the conference teams each tied team defeated; the lowest total is the higher seedEach team adds up the standings positions of the conference teams it beat. A lower total means its wins came against better-ranked opponents.
Goal differential, capped at three goals per gameListed a second time in the official policy. Step 4 already applies it.
Coin tossUsed only if every step above leaves teams level.

With three or more teams tied, once any step separates one or more teams, those teams are set aside and the rest start again at step 1.

How this page works

With undecided games, the page plays out every win, tie and loss combination of those games (up to 177,147) and counts how often each team lands on each seed. Each combination is weighted equally, so read the percentages as a guide to how many paths lead somewhere, not as forecasts.

Step 3 is read as points earned against playoff teams that are not in the tied group. Goal tiebreakers (steps 4 to 8) are applied only when every game has a result and score. Until then, a team caught in a tie that needs them shows a seed range such as 3 to 4.

Unofficial. Official standings and tiebreaker decisions come from the MIAC office.